The Exchange Rate is Expected to Play an Important Impact On the Way we Adjust

Major economies’ currencies have seen a decline in comparison to the US dollar in the last year. The Rupee is not an exception. Out of The Economist’s 33 currencies analyzed each month, only four have gained in value against the US dollar since October 2021.

These currencies are the ones that are issued through Russia, Brazil, Mexico, and Peru. In addition, if you exclude unmanaged economies such as Turkey, Argentina, and Pakistan, emerging market currencies have performed no better than those of the developed world, despite the circumstances of 2013.

A currency’s appreciation relative to the US dollar over the last few months is dependent on four aspects:

  • The structure of the business.
  • The status of its current balance.
  • The reserve of foreign exchange reserves to intervene in the market.
  • The willingness to intervene.

It is known that the Indian Central Bank has typically responded differently to market pressures in foreign exchange, as demonstrated in a recent study published at the 2021 edition of the India Policy Forum organized by the National Council of Applied presented Economics research.

Two economists note how the RBI has generally responded to pressures for the Indian rupee by purchasing foreign exchange reserves. And it has favored letting the rupee fall when depreciation pressure is high instead of using a large amount to secure its foreign exchange reserves.

It’s been the same for years since the pandemic struck. Foreign exchange reserves of the Indian central bank increased to $640 billion from $480 billion before the outbreak.

It was because, at that time, there were plenty of capital flows to help reduce the deficit in current accounts that were shrinking. However, the situation has now changed.

The foreign exchange buffer is now more than $110 billion lower than its September 2021 peak. It has sales of $45 billion and $55 billion of valuation losses due to the easing of global bond rates.

India remains a large foreign currency reserve according to traditional metrics like the cover of imports, an external debt due within the year, and stocks of complete funds.

But, a dramatic decrease in the amount of foreign exchange hoarding implies that exchange rates will need to play an increasing part in the economic adjustment.

Another option is using interest rates to safeguard the Indian rupee. But central banks with an official mandate to target inflation should prefer to use interest rates to control demand for domestic goods and not to control the rate of exchange. It’s never ideal to employ only one instrument to achieve two objectives.

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